On Monday, February 14, 2022, the Coordinating Minister of Maritime Affairs and Investment and the Coordinator of the Indonesian COVID-19 Task Force, Mr. Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, announced that Indonesians travelling from abroad may no longer be required to quarantine by April 1, 2022.
This declaration followed a prior decision from the government to maintain its lockdown policy, also known as PPKM, at its second highest level of 3. On the other hand, the government also made a number of adjustments to alleviate economic restrictions introduced by the lockdown policy. These changes include allowing companies to increase in-office workforce capacity to 50% from 25% previously, as well as on-site activity capacities in public facilities, recreational facilities as well as in art and theater spaces to 50% from 25%.
These latest decisions shows that the Indonesian government is currently pushing for a faster economic recovery despite a significant increase of COVID-19 infections across the country caused by the Omicron variant of the virus. From January 31, 2022, to February 12, 2022, the number of daily confirmed positive COVID-19 cases increased fivefold from 10,185 cases to 55,209 cases. The number of deaths followed a similar trend, rising from just 17 to 107 in that same period. In 2021, with the spike in cases caused by the Delta variant of COVID-19 in the middle of the year, Indonesia鈥檚 economy managed to grow by 3.69% - still below the pre-pandemic growth rate but much better compared to 2020 when the economy shrank by 2.07%.
Mr. Pandjaitan said the government鈥檚 latest decisions were part of its effort to maintain a balance between economic recovery while securing the health of its citizens. He said the adjusted lockdown policy was based on the country鈥檚 inpatient treatment capacity, which was not as pressured as it was when the Delta variant hit Indonesia. He added that Indonesia鈥檚 approach was more conservative than that of some European countries that had nearly completely lifted their restrictions.
As widely reported, the government had already officially opened the gate for international flights as of February 4, 2022, as Omicron cases was spiking upwards. The Indonesian Coordinating Minister of Economic Affairs Mr. Airlangga Hartarto said the government needed to protect the livelihood of those working in the tourism sector, particularly in the tourism-dependent island of Bali.
In a separate statement, the Ministry of Health estimated that the peak of cases of the Omicron variant will occur in the first and second week of February. The statement was made in reference to data on the average peak of Omicron cases in several countries, which occurred 38 days after the increase in cases.
The Anticipated Third Wave Management with Vaccination
The Indonesian government has already anticipated the peak of COVID-19 case increase in February following the government鈥檚 effort to recover from the economic impact of the pandemic. Perry Warjiyo, the Governor of Bank Indonesia (BI), or Indonesia鈥檚 central bank, estimates a more balanced growth in the global and domestic economy in 2022, albeit with several lingering risks that may disrupt economic stability and recovery.
Currently, nearly half (48.5%) of Indonesia鈥檚 population has been fully vaccinated. As of February 7, 2022, as many as 186,703,390 Indonesians have received their first vaccinations or 113,640 more than the day before. Meanwhile, 131,119,425 people have received their second vaccinations or 38,694 more than the previous day. Moreover, the booster vaccination program was finally started on January 12, 2022.
In comparison, Sweden, with 72.8 percent of its population fully vaccinated, has declared that the pandemic is over. The Sweden鈥檚 Minister of Health, Lena Hallengren also lifted almost all of its lockdown policies. Despite registering 114 new deaths as of February 9, 2022, the number of deaths per capita remains lower than most European countries.
Mr. Warjiyo said the government would continue to pay attention to the country鈥檚 economic recovery as several other risks, aside from the pandemic, were also overshadowing the national economic balance, such as the Fed normalizing its monetary policy.